When Is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?

8 min read · Last updated March 2026

Everyone wants to buy the bottom and sell the top. Nobody can do it perfectly. But historical data shows that certain conditions have consistently offered better entry points than others.

The Short Answer

If you bought Bitcoin on any day when our cycle score was below 30 and held for at least 12 months, you would have been profitable 100% of the time in every past cycle. That doesn't guarantee the same result in the future, but it's a powerful historical pattern.

100%

Win rate buying below 30

+127%

Avg 12-month return

-38%

Avg return buying above 80

Three Data-Driven Strategies

Strategy 1: Buy the Fear

When the Fear & Greed Index drops below 20 and the cycle score is under 30, the market is in what we call an "extreme fear zone." Historically, these moments have been the best buying opportunities.

This doesn't mean you should go all-in at once. The best approach is dollar-cost averaging (DCA) — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals (e.g., $100/week) during fear periods. This way, you don't need to time the exact bottom.

Historical examples: Buying during the extreme fear of December 2018 ($3,200), March 2020 ($5,000), or November 2022 ($16,500) all resulted in 100%+ returns within 12 months.

Strategy 2: Watch the 200-Day Moving Average

When Bitcoin's price drops more than 20% below its 200-day moving average, it has historically been undervalued relative to its long-term trend. This isn't a perfect timing tool, but combined with other indicators, it significantly improves your odds.

The 200-day MA acts as a "gravity line" — price tends to return to it over time. Large deviations below it have been buying opportunities; large deviations above it have been warning signs.

Strategy 3: The DCA Baseline

If timing feels too stressful, the simplest approach is to DCA a fixed amount every week regardless of price. Then, increase your DCA amount during fear periods (score below 30) and decrease or pause it during euphoria (score above 75).

This "weighted DCA" approach has historically outperformed both random buying and lump-sum investing in Bitcoin.

The hardest part: When the score is below 30, everything feels terrible. The news is bad, prices are falling, and your gut says "don't buy." That's exactly why these periods offer the best value — most people can't bring themselves to act.

When NOT to Buy

History is equally clear about bad times to start buying: when the score is above 80, sentiment is euphoric, and price is far above the 200-day MA. These are the moments when everyone is excited about Bitcoin — and they're the worst times to make your first purchase.

If the score is above 75, consider waiting, or at minimum, buying only very small amounts.

Check the Current Score

Our BTC Cycle Indicator updates daily and tells you exactly where we are based on these four metrics. Bookmark it and check it before making any Bitcoin purchase.

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