BTC Cycle Report — 2026-03-09

Updated daily · Based on 4 on-chain indicators
Score: 28/100 — Cold
BTC Price
$67,813
vs 200-Day MA
-28.8%
Fear & Greed
8/100
BTC Dominance
56.5%

What Does a Score of 28 Mean?

Scores between 15-30 indicate a cold market where fear dominates. Historically, these periods have been accumulation zones where long-term holders added to positions. The average time spent below 30 in past cycles was 4-10 weeks before recovery began. However, bear markets can extend these periods significantly.

Historical Parallels

Here's what happened the last time conditions looked similar:

2024-08-05 — Score: 28/100 | $49,500
Japan carry trade unwind caused global selloff. Sharp correction.
3 months later: $75,000 (+52%)
2021-05-19 — Score: 25/100 | $36,000
China mining ban + Elon tweet crash. Score dropped 60 points in 5 weeks.
6 months later: $68,000 (+89%)
2023-01-14 — Score: 35/100 | $21,000
Recovery begins. Score crossed 30 as selling pressure exhausted.
12 months later: $42,000 (+100%)

Important: History doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. Past recoveries don't guarantee future ones. Use this as context, not as a trading signal.

Historically, scores below 30 have been accumulation zones. If you're considering entering the market, starting small with dollar-cost averaging may be worth exploring.
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How This Score Is Calculated

The BTC Cycle Indicator combines four metrics, each weighted by its historical predictive value:

Fear & Greed Index (25%): Measures overall market sentiment from social media, volatility, volume, and surveys. Currently at 8/100.

Price vs 200-Day Moving Average (35%): The 200-day MA is a widely-watched long-term trend indicator. BTC is currently -28.8% from it. Large deviations below often signal undervaluation; large deviations above signal overextension.

Funding Rate (15%): The perpetual futures funding rate shows whether leveraged traders are net long or short. Currently N/A.

BTC Dominance (25%): Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap. Currently 56.5%. High dominance typically appears in early/bear markets; low dominance signals alt-season euphoria.

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Scores are based on public on-chain data and historical statistical patterns — not predictions.
Crypto carries extreme risk. DYOR. Not financial advice.
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