BTC Cycle Report — 2026-03-06

Updated daily · Based on 4 on-chain indicators
Score: 31/100 — Neutral
BTC Price
$70,902
vs 200-Day MA
-26.1%
Fear & Greed
18/100
BTC Dominance
57.0%

What Does a Score of 31 Mean?

Scores between 30-45 suggest the market is transitioning. This zone often appears during the early stages of recovery or during mid-cycle corrections. It's a region of uncertainty — the market could be building a base for the next move up, or it could still be finding its bottom.

Historical Parallels

Here's what happened the last time conditions looked similar:

2024-08-05 — Score: 28/100 | $49,500
Japan carry trade unwind caused global selloff. Sharp correction.
3 months later: $75,000 (+52%)
2023-01-14 — Score: 35/100 | $21,000
Recovery begins. Score crossed 30 as selling pressure exhausted.
12 months later: $42,000 (+100%)
2021-05-19 — Score: 25/100 | $36,000
China mining ban + Elon tweet crash. Score dropped 60 points in 5 weeks.
6 months later: $68,000 (+89%)

Important: History doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. Past recoveries don't guarantee future ones. Use this as context, not as a trading signal.

The market is in a transitional phase. If you want to start building a position, consider small regular purchases rather than one large buy.
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How This Score Is Calculated

The BTC Cycle Indicator combines four metrics, each weighted by its historical predictive value:

Fear & Greed Index (25%): Measures overall market sentiment from social media, volatility, volume, and surveys. Currently at 18/100.

Price vs 200-Day Moving Average (35%): The 200-day MA is a widely-watched long-term trend indicator. BTC is currently -26.1% from it. Large deviations below often signal undervaluation; large deviations above signal overextension.

Funding Rate (15%): The perpetual futures funding rate shows whether leveraged traders are net long or short. Currently N/A.

BTC Dominance (25%): Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap. Currently 57.0%. High dominance typically appears in early/bear markets; low dominance signals alt-season euphoria.

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Scores are based on public on-chain data and historical statistical patterns — not predictions.
Crypto carries extreme risk. DYOR. Not financial advice.
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